Performance evidence
How to Judge an Investment Track Record Without Cherry-Picking
A screenshot of one winner is marketing, not a track record. A useful scorecard records what was known before the outcome and applies the same measurement rules to every eligible call.
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The timestamp has to come first
A decision should be recorded before the favorable or adverse move being measured. If the timestamp can be edited after the fact, the result cannot prove forward decision quality.
Keep the full denominator
Removing losers or changing the rules after seeing the result can make a weak process look strong.
- ✓ Include eligible winners and losers
- ✓ Keep invalidated calls
- ✓ Keep adverse movement
- ✓ Define how open calls are treated
- ✓ Use the same measurement horizon or disclose differences
- ✓ Compare against a benchmark over the same period
MFE and MAE answer different questions
Maximum favorable excursion shows how far price moved in the favorable direction after the call. Maximum adverse excursion shows how much it moved against the call. Neither should be confused with the investor’s realized return.
Benchmark the same clock
Comparing a recommendation with SPY or QQQ is meaningful only when the benchmark is measured over the same timestamps and the methodology handles cash flows consistently.
Common questions
Is MFE the same as profit?
No. MFE measures the best favorable price movement observed after a timestamped decision. It does not prove that a user entered or exited at that price.
Why include losers in marketing evidence?
Because excluding them distorts the denominator. A credible performance record uses predetermined eligibility rules and preserves positive and negative outcomes.
From education to a decision
See how Vikayo organizes the evidence.
The product is designed to turn portfolio context, market evidence, opportunity quality and risk into one plain-English next step while retaining WAIT when the evidence is not strong enough.